Localized solar power prediction based on weather data from local history and global forecasts

With the recent interest in net-zero sustainability for commercial buildings, integration of photovoltaic (PV) assets becomes even more important. This integration remains a challenge due to high solar variability and uncertainty in the prediction of PV output. Most existing methods predict PV output using either local power/weather history or global weather forecasts, thereby ignoring either the impending global phenomena or the relevant local characteristics, respectively. This work proposes to leverage weather data from both local weather history and global forecasts based on time series modeling with exogenous inputs. The proposed model results in eighteen hour ahead forecasts with a mean accuracy of $\approx$ 80\% and uses data from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables, 45th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC

Remote ID for Rapid Assessment of Flight and Vehicle Information

The ability to rapidly identify UAS (Unmanned Aircraft Systems) in the field has emerged as a critical need for the integration of small UASs into the national airspace and counter-UAS operations. This paper proposes an architecture for rapid retrieval of UAS information leveraging NASA's current Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) system. The proposed architecture utilizes UTM components: FIMS (Flight Information Management System), USS (UAS Service Supplier), and vehicle registration and model database in order to provide assessment of the UAS reported in the field including the ability to distinguish between participating and non- participating UTM actors. Detailed system descriptions are provided and preliminary results from field tests conducted during UTM TCL (Technical Capability Level) 3 are discussed. It is found that 94 percent of the remote ID look-ups were successful. The average time of a look-up is found to be 1.2 seconds. Failure cases are examined and recommendations on next steps to advance UAS remote identification are provided

Rapid Trajectory Prediction for a Fixed-Wing UAS in a Uniform Wind Field with Specified Arrival Times

This paper presents an algorithm to rapidly generate trajectories for a kinematic fixed-wing Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) model flying at constant altitude in a uniform wind field. Arrival times are specified by operators and rapid generation is accomplished via an elliptic integral problem formulation. Simulations are provided that illustrate this approach in the context of NASA's UAS Traffic Management Project

Feasibility of Varying Geo-Fence Around an Unmanned Aircraft Operation Based on Vehicle Performance and Wind

Managing trajectory separation is critical to ensuring accessibility, efficiency, and safety in the unmanned airspace. The notion of geo-fences is an emerging concept, where distance buffers enclose individual trajectories and areas of operation in order to manage the airspace. Currently, the Air Traffic Management system for commercial travel defines static distance buffers around the aircraft; however, commercial UASs are envisioned to operate in significantly closer proximity to other UAS requiring a geo-fence for spacing operations. The geo-fence size can be determined based on vehicle performance characteristics, state of the airspace, weather, and other unforeseen events such as emergency or disaster response. Calculation of the geo-fence size could be determined as part of pre-flight planning and during real-time operations. A largely non-homogeneous fleet of UASs will be operating in low altitude and will likely be commercially developed. Due to intellectual property concerns, the operators may not provide detailed specifications of the control system to UTM. In addition, the huge variety of UAS makes modeling each control system prohibitive and flight data for these vehicles may not exist. Therefore, a generalized, simple geo-fence sizing algorithm must be developed such that it does not rely on detailed knowledge of the vehicle control system, accounts for the presence of urban winds, and is sufficiently accurate. In this work, two simple models are investigated to determine its feasibility as an adequate means for calculating the geo-fence size. The vehicle data used in this work are provided by UAS manufactures who have partnered with NASA's UTM project and some publicly available websites. The first model utilizes wind data processed from the NOAA HRRR (Hourly Rapid Refresh) product and Sonar Annemometer data provided by San Jose State. The second model utilizes OpenFOAM which is a CFD code used to generate a wind field for flow around a single building. The key vehicle performance parameters can include UAS response time to disturbances, command to actuation latency, control system rate limits, time to recovery to desired path, and aerodynamics. It was found that the first model provides an initial understanding of geo-fence sizing, but does not provide enough accuracy to provide UTM with an efficient means of scheduling vehicles. The results of the second model reveal that modeling UAS controls systems with a linearized plant and gain scheduled PID controller does not allow capture the UAS flight dynamics within a significant envelope of the wind disturbances

Occupant Plugload Management for Demand Response in Commercial Buildings: Field Experimentation and Statistical Characterization

Commercial buildings account for approximately 36% of US electricity consumption, of which nearly two-thirds is met by fossil fuels [1] resulting in an adverse impact on the environment. Reducing this impact requires improving energy efficiency and lowering energy consumption. Most existing studies focus on designing methods to regulate and reduce HVAC and lighting energy consumption. However, few studies have focused on the control of occupant plugload energy consumption. In this study, we conducted multiple experiments to analyze changes in occupant plugload energy consumption due to monetary incentives and/or feedback. The experiments were performed in government office and university buildings at NASA Research Park located in Moffett Field, CA. Analysis of the data reveal significant plugload energy reduction can be achieved via feedback and/or incentive mechanisms. Autoregressive models are used to predict expected plugload savings in the presence of exogenous variables. The results of this study suggest that occupant-in-the-loop control architectures have the potential to reduce energy consumption and hence lower the carbon footprint of commercial buildings.Comment: 20 pages, 15 figures, 4 tables, preprin

Bounded Linear Stability Analysis - A Time Delay Margin Estimation Approach for Adaptive Control

This paper presents a method for estimating time delay margin for model-reference adaptive control of systems with almost linear structured uncertainty. The bounded linear stability analysis method seeks to represent the conventional model-reference adaptive law by a locally bounded linear approximation within a small time window using the comparison lemma. The locally bounded linear approximation of the combined adaptive system is cast in a form of an input-time-delay differential equation over a small time window. The time delay margin of this system represents a local stability measure and is computed analytically by a matrix measure method, which provides a simple analytical technique for estimating an upper bound of time delay margin. Based on simulation results for a scalar model-reference adaptive control system, both the bounded linear stability method and the matrix measure method are seen to provide a reasonably accurate and yet not too conservative time delay margin estimation

A Robust Initialization Scheme for a Lateral Trajectory Optimization Problem with Time of Arrival Windows

We present a robust initialization scheme that estimates parameter values for the numerical solution of a two-point boundary value problem. The two-point boundary value problem formulation stems from the optimization of a cost functional subject to the dynamics of a simplified lateral aircraft model and other constraints. Leveraging regular perturbation methods, initial parameter estimates are analytically determined and used to initialize a gradient descent optimization routine which is shown to rapidly converge over a range of initial aircraft positions and heading angles. Additionally, the velocity of the aircraft is optimized to ensure the trajectory of the aircraft terminates within a desired region in both time and space

Remote ID for Rapid Assessment of Flight and Vehicle Information

The ability to rapidly identify UAS in the field has emerged as a critical need for the integration of small UASs into the national airspace and counter-uas operations. This paper proposes an architecture for rapid retrieval of UAS information leveraging NASA's current Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) system. The proposed architecture utilizes UTM components: FIMS (Flight Information Management System), USS (UAS Service Supplier), and vehicle registration and model database in order to provide assessment of the UAS reported in the field including the ability to distinguish between participating and non- participating UTM actors. Detailed system descriptions are provided and preliminary results from field tests conducted during UTM TCL (Technical Capability Level) 3 are discussed. It is found that 94% of the remote ID look-ups were successful. The average time of a look-up is found to be 1.2 seconds. Failure cases are examined and recommendations on next steps to advance UAS remote identification are provided